A Design for Predictability and Hope for Anomaly

The NCAA tournament is an interesting annual event. The tourney is nicknamed “March Madness” because of its unpredictability and fans of basketball adore that aspect of the system. When a lesser team makes it far or wins, it is considered big news while the number one seeds winning is almost disappointing. Without a team back (Maryland did not make the tournament), I too have been rooting for the underdogs. It is a system designed to cause more anguish than joy statistically speaking. None-the-less I am compelled to do so.

It should be noted that the system is stacked against the poorer teams. The weak teams are given low seeds and are forced to play the better teams early. The system is “fair” since the superior teams won more games during the season and deserve an easier path to victory. The way the system is designed, the number ones are expected to win. Still, the fans seem to hope for a different outcome.

It is perplexing- people hope that a system that is designed to produce a predictable outcome somehow will produce a volatile one.

One is hard-pressed to find other systems like this in life. Security systems are meant to alert and weapons systems are meant to destroy. Living systems are meant to thrive and state systems are meant to govern. When they fail, people are angered, annoyed or distressed. Those that would take joy in these systems failing probably did not want those systems in place in the first place.

Yes, people like the self-made man who rises up against all odds and “beats the system”, but society did not really design that system (at least not consciously). In fact, society attempts to do the opposite. Charity organizations and government attempt to lessen the barriers for people to rise. Sure, some people exist that knowingly create barriers, but they are not the ones taking joy in the rise of poor either.

Sports may be unique in that its system for choosing a winner is generally accepted as appropriate, yet people love to see it fail anyway. People run the statistics, consult the experts, check the box scores and make bets on predictions. Then, like knocking down dominoes, they marvel and cheer at the futility of their labor. The inability of mankind to predict the future is seen as a wonderful ting. The universe is larger than we perceive it and that gives us hope.

The Lie

Joseph Goebbels said “if you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.” There is no doubt that Goebbels makes a strong point. There are millions of “factoids” floating around that never get debunked or by the time they are debunked, it is too late (i.e. Iraq). Winston Churchil said “a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.” I think Churchil is being rather optimistic. He seems to believe that, eventually, the truth is uncovered and embraced. I am little more skeptical.

For instance, the Great Wall cannot be seen from space or, if you define space as where you can see the Great Wall, the wall is not unique. I-95 is much more visible. Most people seem to believe the opposite. Simillarily, lemmings do not jump of cliffs and drown themselves. There is no credible historical proof that Jesus ever lived. Reagan did not bring down the Soviet Union through military spending. Bumblebees are aerodynamic and do not violate any laws of physics. Circumcision is healthy.

Nikolai Lenin believed “a lie told often enough becomes truth”. This is a much darker and more serious claim than Goebbels or Churchil make. Lenin, apparently believing that human perception is reality, states that a falsehood can actually become truth. If history is nothing more than a written narrative, than a change of the narrative will really and actually change history. If everyone were to believe that Luke Skywalker was the first man to land on the moon instead of Neil Armstrong, than it would be so.

Like a Delorean bound Michael J. Fox, people could alter history in an attempt to alter the present. How do we, the powerless, stop this assault? Well, I suppose all we can continue to correct people and annoy them.

Revealing a truth, though, is only treating the symptom. The liars themselves are still out there with an agenda. Alfred Adler said “a lie would have no sense unless the truth were felt as dangerous”. Indeed. Behind every lie there is a reason for propagating it. Someone out there wanted us to think the Chinese were clever. Another wanted us to believe overpopulation leads to self-destruction. Another wanted us to convert to Christianity and another wanted us to think Reagan’s policies were good. Some guy wanted us to think the world was mystical and some other guy did not want us to mess with our kids’ penises.

They must have gone through a lot of effort to misinform people. Actually, maybe they went though very little effort. Whatever-the-case, it is clear that a time-traveling conspiracy for global domination is out there and they fear the truth. I should sell this idea to Chris Carter.

Life, In Absentia

While training for my marathon, I have discovered a few things that happen to my body after I do twelve-mile runs or above. First, my knees can only take so much abuse before responding in accordance. Second, running makes me quite sleepy, but for some reason I cannot sleep. Third, nipples on men cause nothing but pain (runners understand exactly what I’m talking about). Most importantly, though, I’ve discovered that my consciousness vanishes for the rest of the day.

It is not that I cannot perform my daily functions after a run. I can go to grocery store, do my laundry and watch TV just like everyone else. These actions, though, seem like I am viewing them from a third person perspective. They happen as if I am only watching and not in full control.

This is not the only time one can experience “selflessness” in the non-charitable sense of the word. Writers speak of sex as a time when humans are non-sentient. The term “to die for” alludes to the losing of oneself during orgasm. “Seduction” speaks of the body’s will triumphing over the control of the mind.

Being intoxicated by alcohol or some other drug also seems to bring out a human auto-pilot. I have always been surprised and intrigued at how clever and social I am when I am drunk. This may only be an impression I get while inebriated (in fact, I’m almost sure of it). None-the-less, I, like many, prefer the control of the drunken alter ego on occasion to handle a social situation. He often does a better job than I do. Though, I am also shocked and fearful of the super-drunk alter ego who can embarrass me and reveal things about my id that I may have not wanted to know.

Panic is another time when the thoughtless animal takes full control of body. Both times when I was mugged, the panicked version of myself screamed like a little girl and ran. There was no time for thought or rationality. My body acted automatically, decisively and perhaps for the best.

What is interesting is that losing oneself is often preferred. Actors, dancers and baseball players often enter a “zone”. Procrastinators know about the late-night phantom of productivity. The depressed let the non-contemplative pass the painful time. Thought, analysis and the self can actually hinder success from time to time.

When these times come, we let Mr. Hyde take over so that Dr. Jekyll can enjoy the fruits of Hyde’s success. Hyde’s actions are good enough “to die for” and Jekyll can only look back on these actions in retrospect, posthumously.

Why Strive For Self-Sufficiency?

In the modern times of our nation, the idea of liberty has been reinterpreted by many as being left alone and being “self-sufficient”. It is assumed, for some reason, that doing things on your own is some great feat. People are praised for “pulling themselves up by their bootstraps” and becoming a “success”. Solo trips to X and Y locations are talked about as historical. Likewise, rich kids who have taken money from their parents, ethnicities who rely on the favoritism of their community and those who get welfare from the government are dismissed as leaches. A great number of people think that those who receive should be cut off from their benefactors.

First off, I would propose that self-sufficiency does not really exist. Everyone, from the rich to the poor, from the urban to the rural, gives and takes from society. You give every time to buy something and spur the economy, you give every time you pay taxes (whether it’s sales tax, income tax, excise tax or social insurance tax) and you give every time you do your job. You give every time you obey the law, every time you are nice to your fellow human and every time you try to improve the system. We all take as well. We use the schools, the roads, the police, the army, the water, the air, the food, the law, the economy, the land, electricity and even the hospital we were born in. It is arguable that some take more than others and some give more that others.

Second, what is so bad about cooperation? What is so bad about needing help and receiving aid? Cooperation seems to have been downgraded (except by the communists on Sesame Street that praise sharing). Cooperation is seen as some sort of weakness, but there is no exact reason why is should be. Why are we ashamed to ask directions? Why are we annoyed to spare a dime? Justice? I do not have the answer to this.

On the other hand, I too, seem to value doing things on my own. I would never hire maid or someone to mow my lawn (unless my house was just ridiculously big). I would never join an organized trip or have a driver. I do get angry at those who did not earn what they have yet act like they did. I hate racism, nepotism and favoritism.

Doing things on one’s own is satisfying in that it is liberating (what ever that is), but is also lonely. Anyone who has ever lived alone understands this dichotomy.

Are those who push liberty just selfish people who feel others are dragging them down? Are they just lonely people who want others to share their misery? Are they just jealous people who complain about not being connected as well? Is there some actual practical benefit to self-sufficiency? I don’t know.

After all, being dead is being self-sufficient as well.

Cavemen Versus Astronauts

Society is riddled with long-standing debates about how would win hypothetical battles. Some ask who the greatest president was while others inquire about the identity of history’s greatest rocker. Space battles are contemplated between Star Destroyers and Galaxy Class Starships and people wonder about who would in a fight between a Wookie and Klingon. Perhaps the greatest “versus” debate is also the most basic: the cavemen versus the astronauts.

On the one hand, we have something primal and savage with brutal animal instinct. On the other, we have individuals who are bigger, smarter and are able to use teamwork. Man has evolved, but perhaps only into namby-pamby, self-analyzing “wankers”. Then again, the aggressive early man is also riddled with superstitious terror.

This isn’t just a question about which is a better potential Halloween costume; this is a question about the direction of mankind.

With all the years that mankind has had to overcome the evil of the past, has it improved? I think most of us would say yes. We live longer and healthier lives. Less of us live in poverty and more of us have opportunity. We have banned slavery, halted most disease and have put an end to most war. People are more equal in the eyes of each other and are less likely to slit their brothers’ throats.

Still, the evil of the past is ever present and perhaps growing. Entertainment tells us to embrace the violence, machismo and materialism of the past. Religion tells us to reject science and to fear the future. Libertarians tell us to throw away teamwork in the name of self-sufficiency. The cavemen’s call is relentless and the astronauts’ numbers grow slim.

After all of the training to be physically fit, after all of the studying of science and truth, after all the cooperation with others and caring about their fate as one’s own, it can all be ripped apart by the beast within. Twenty thousand years of civilization toppled by barbaric idiots with the savage ambition.

Of course the cavemen win.

Prophecy

A prophecy is miracle of knowledge, a declaration or description or representation of
something future. It is beyond the power of human sagacity to foresee, discern or
conjecture. None-the-less, society continuously asks us to rise to level of Nostradamus or Mohammad and speak about the future.

At the age of five, our teachers ask us “what do you want to be when you grow up?” Having no idea, I think I randomly picked a minister because they get to give advice and make speeches. It seemed entertaining. Looking back, my teacher must have thought me to be a complete freak. Interestingly, children in the “Up Series” actually did predict their future quite well at age 7. The ones that had predicted they would attend Eton and Oxford ended up actually attending Eton and Oxford. By 28, most of the children were doing exactly what they thought they would. Perhaps my indecision at five was telling as I am pretty much in that same position (minus thinking being a minister would be entertaining).

As we apply to college or graduate school, institutions ask us where we are going and, as we graduate, our parents ask us the same question as well as if age or deadlines somehow give us the ability to foresee things. When looking for work, interviewers ask us where we will be in five years. I don’t know where I’ll be next Tuesday let alone five years. I am not necessarily being indecisive; I’m being realistic. How can we know for sure who we will be or what we will want? Still, like everyone else, in interviews I lie and tell them that this job is the path to my golden fleece.

I believe many people make prophecies and predictions thinking that by speaking them, the prophecies will somehow become self-fulfilling. Like Oedipus leaving Corinth after hearing of his destiny, people somehow think that they will be successful if they tell everyone that they will be successful. The other explanation for these self-aggrandizing predictions is that they are exercises in self-command. By telling everyone what they will do, they will be more motivated to actually do what they say. Empirically, as shown by the above-mentioned 7-year-old among other things, it does seem to be an effective strategy. Imagine if humility led to success!

Dickens wrote in David Copperfield:

“Whether I shall turn out to be the hero of my own life, or whether that station will be held by anybody else, these pages must show.”

Being a champion, forging one’s destiny and pulling oneself up by one’s bootstraps seems to be valued these days. It is a far cry from the days of Icarus and Bellerophon when there was such thing as too much ambition. What was the lesson that the Greek were trying to teach with tales like these? Humility to the gods? Sure, but how does that really help people in life?

I would say that when forging a destiny and writing a prophecy, one needs to show humility to the future and one’s future self. The future is filled with unexpected twists and that is what makes life grand. One’s future self may not be made happy by the simple dreams of the younger self. If one is going to craft a plan or prophecy regarding one’s life in order to give oneself direction and motivation, it ought not to be too specific. Something as a cryptic as Revelation might be suitable. Not to mention, it would kind of cool to have a 5-year-plan involving great eagles and serpent’s horns.

The Parts Being Greater Than the Sum of the Whole

When I was in seventh grade, I was asked to write a paper on someone I admired. It was a difficult task as I did not idolize anyone. In fact, at the time, I believed that everyone ought to find his or her own path free from being some sort of following automaton or sycophant. After trying to write a paper on how I had no heroes and having that paper rejected, I think I ended up randomly choosing Harrison Ford as someone I admired (keep in mind, he hadn’t made Air Force One yet). I’m a little less extreme and anarchist now, but the young version of me was on the right path. In youth, though, I was lacking some additional insight.

Picking and Choosing What to Admire

When one asks people what they think of Woody Allen, some people mention his great movies and others speak of Allen screwing around with his ex-girlfriend’s young adopted Korean daughter. For many, it is impossible to divorce one aspect of the man from another. Some bring up Marten Luther King’s affairs or Jefferson having sex with slaves as some sort of tangential way to discredit an individual. Of course, these things have little, if anything, to do with their achievements, but, none-the-less, people with simple minds like looking at the full package.

Admiration and idolization, though, ought to be more like the Chimera. Humans ought to divorce the strong pieces of various individuals and cultures from their weaknesses. Once identified, one can emulate the chosen pieces in order to create a better self.

Too Much on One’s Own Path

Woody Allen, like most artists, has another weakness besides womanizing and being self-centered.

Meryl Streep said this after making “Manhattan”:
“On a certain level, the film offends me because it's about all these people whose sole concern is discussing their emotional states or their neuroses. It's sad because Woody
has the potential to be America's Chekhov.”

Actually, I think Allen did achieve the potential of Chekhov. Reading a lot of Chekhov is much like seeing a number of Allen’s films. They are all about self-absorbed, depressed, overly analytical characters who one cannot relate to, but one can admire for their intelligence and wit. More notable, though, Chekhov and Allen are same crap, over and over, over and over, over and over, etc.

The reason why bands break up, comics stop being funny and artists fade away is that they become famous. Once famous, they lose their insecurity, stop admiring others and stop checking their work. They think they are the shit, but old shit begins to stink. (Yeah, yeah, new shit stinks too. No metaphor is perfect).

So, admiration is a good thing after all (if only partial and not complete). One need admiration to avoid the redundancy of the self and to continuously improve.