Victims of Our Own Design

If one has taken any statistics, done any investing or done any gambling, one is familiar with short-term volatility and long-term trends. We know that the flip of a coin produces tails fifty percent of the time. Flip it only a few times, though, and the result may not be that close to fifty. Flip it a few more, it gets closer. Flip it several thousand times and you will be pretty much at fifty percent exactly. Observe my flipping:

Flip, Result, Percent of Time Tails, Error
#1 Tails 100% 50%
#2 Tails 100% 50%
#3 Tails 100% 50%
#4 Tails 100% 50%
#5 Heads 80% 30%
#6 Tails 83% 33%
#7 Tails 86% 36%
#8 Heads 75% 25%
#9 Tails 77% 27%
#10 Tails 80% 30%
#11 Heads 73% 23%
#12 Tails 75% 25%
#13 Tails 77% 27%
#14 Heads 71% 21%
#15 Tails 73% 23%
#16 Tails 75% 25%
#17 Heads 71% 21%
#18 Tails 72% 22%
#19 Heads 68% 18%
#20 Tail 70% 20%
#21 Heads 67% 17%
#22 Tails 68% 18%
#23 Heads 65% 15%
#24 Heads 63% 13%
#25 Heads 60% 10%

Quite clearly, as time goes on, our error term diminishes and our results get closer to our prediction of fifty percent. We know that inherent in the coin, there is a tendency for evenness. Luck exists in the short-term, but in the long term, it is fleeting and all that remains is the essence of the coin.

Just as we know the coin to produce tails one half of the time and a die to produce the number four one sixth of the time, we know what human actions produce in the long run as well. We know naivity is taken advantage of and sincerity leads to trust. We know kindness produces kindness and hatred consumes the self. We know the forgiving are surrounded by friends and the manipulative are left alone. With all of these traits, the word “eventually” follows.

Take Lear. From the beginning of the play, we know Lear will fall. How do we know? Because he is flawed. It may take several acts, but we know that Lear’s rashness will lead to his destruction because it is essence of who he is. The characters of the play attempt to blame other forces; Gloucester and Lear blame the gods while Edgar and Kent blame fortune. In the end, though, we know that they only have themselves, their actions and their natures to blame.

All well and good for coins and Shakespearean tragic heroes, but does this really apply to the real world? Some people are really lucky and unlucky, are they not? Some are born without legs while others are born millionaires. Did the essence of their character really lead to this fate? Probably not.

No one lives forever and no one can flip a coin for eternity. Even after twenty-five flips or years, there can be significant error. This world is filled with severally unlucky and lucky people. But if we flipped six billion coins twenty five times, quite a few would be all tails and quite a few all heads (in fact, roughly would 179 coins would hit tails 25 times).

The vast majority, though, remain close to their essence. When it comes to our own fate and our own happiness, it turns out to be our lives after all.